Image source: Alamy Stock Photo
There is everything to play for when the South African National Team clash with South Korea in their final Group A game of the
2026 World Cup. In many ways, this is a knockout game. While South Korea could still qualify with a draw depending on other third-place rankings, anything less than a win for Bafana will certainly end their campaign. However, victory would guarantee at least third place (possibly second) and leave them an excellent (99%) chance of reaching the next round.
By The Numbers is a statistical preview of the South African National Team’s big game.
Key stats:
- Bafana need a win to stand a chance of going through
- This is only the South African National Team’s second game against Asian opposition at the World Cup
- South Korea have only lost once against African teams (P4 W2 D1 L1)
- South Korea are heavily favoured for the win (60% implied probability by the odds)
Crunch time for Bafana
The come-from-behind draw against Czechia means the South African National Team enter their final group game in good shape. They have improved steadily since the start of the tournament, recovering from a lifeless performance that produced just three shots on Matchday 1 to earn an encouraging draw against Czechia on Matchday 2. Now, they take on Korea in arguably the nation’s biggest game since Matchday 3 of the 2010 World Cup.
Back then, the South African National Team were in a similar position, having taken one point from their opening two games. A brave 2-1 win over France was not enough, with goal difference denying them a place in the knockout rounds. Overall Bafana’s record on Matchday 3 in the tournament is mixed: P3 W1 D1 L1. However, they have often saved their best attacking displays for the final group game. They have scored Over 1.5 goals four times in World Cup history, with three of these occurrences coming in Matchday 3.
Bet on the South African National Team to score Over 1.5 goals
Will Mokoena’s absence be felt?
The image below shows which areas of the pitch Bafana have controlled in their two games. The purple patches represent zones Bafana have controlled, with the furthermost zones showing areas where their two most influential players have operated. Thapelo Maseko in the solitary box up front, and Teboho Mokoena in the middle. To say his absence will be felt is an understatement.
South Korea
The omens also look less positive for South Korea. Betway odds give them a 60% implied probability of victory, while Opta simulations also see them win 56% of the time. After beating Togo 2-1 in 2006, their recent record against African teams has not been strong. They drew 2-2 with Nigeria (2010), lost to Algeria 4-2 (2014) and Ghana 3-2 (2022). These matches have all been high-scoring, suggesting fearlessness from CAF teams that the Koreans have struggled with. With Bafana needing a win, this contest is developing along similar lines.
Bet on Over 3.5 goals in the game
Permutations - how the South African National Team can qualify.
Defeat eliminates the South African National Team from the tournament, while a draw will leave them with a slim chance of progressing (5%). Only a win keeps qualification alive, while the other Group A result will determine how they qualify.
- A win for Bafana coupled with a Czech draw or defeat will ensure they progress in second place.
- If both Bafana and Czechia win, goal-difference and third-place rankings may come into play.
Mokoena's absence could prove decisive. In a match of this magnitude, losing their most influential midfielder may be a handicap too far.
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